The 2040 scenario development

Methodologically, the scenario development process was mostly inductive and informed by participatory scenario workshops. Work progressed through three main phases: Initial conceptualisation/debate, leading to initial ‘proto- scenarios’; Scenario elaboration and visualisation; and Scenario refinement.

Based on research conducted in 2014, research team members initially proposed and debated a range of possible scenarios that would be challenging, divergent and plausible. The research team attempted to combine multiple elements – ranging from concepts depicted in the ‘glimpses’ of possible low carbon urban futures (see Ryan et al 2015) to trend data – into coherent description of plausible futures of sustainable and resilient Australian cities. An initial set of four ‘proto-scenarios’ were based on social, political and economic conditions. This approach was judged to be more aligned with the project’s emphasis on low carbon living which is broader than technological change or shifts inurban infrastructure. This approach was informed by other sustainability-related scenarios work internationally. Workshops in each of the cities (attended by members of the expert panel) critiqued the photo-scenarios which were refined, interactively, between workshop events. The research team also conducted interviews with 10 prominent thinkers and innovators who are working on urban futures.

The four end-state scenarios The final scenarios describe distinctive long term possibilities of what low carbon living might ‘look and feel’ like in the future in southern Australian cities these are not predictions but produced as thinking aids and tools for exploring alternative plausible futures. They challenge assumptions (e.g. about what underlies a low carbon resilient city), provide provocations to open up our attention to a wider range of perspectives, and can be used to assist with preparing for the future by considering the implications of such scenarios for current practices and policies.

The four scenario approach artificially exaggerated some of the quadrant dimensions - a useful approach to understanding the potential for disruptive events and a performance target (80% reduction) to lead to very different social-economic directions. Although all four scenarios (below) were modelled to test their performance outcomes, that process was limited by the complexity of the calculations, so modelling required an array of assumptions that could not be adequately tested within the time available. Also the city-partner response to the future-states was naturally to ask what would occur if there were – plausible – combinations of various attributes of each. Responding to these tensions and critiques, the project did combine the four scenarios into two “Action Pathways” which were modelled with greater accuracy.

The four scenarios are described in the following diagrams: