Visions and Pathways 2040
Visions and Pathways 2040
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Overview:
Visions and Pathways 2040 (VP2040) was a research and engagement program to develop visions, scenarios and pathways for transforming Australian cities to achieve rapid decarbonisation as well as increased resilience in the face of climate change. The program involved three universities (University of Melbourne, University of NSW and Swinburne) and nine government and industry partners. VP2040 was funded as a four-year project by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Low Carbon Living from 2014 -2018:
VP2040 sought to envision possibilities for the physical form and urban lifestyles of Australian cities in 2040, on the assumption that they achieve at least an 80% reduction target in greenhouse gas emissions and have addressed vulnerabilities that arise with changes in climate and extreme weather events. The program’s target of an 80% reduction was set in 2014 after a review of targets set by other comparable cities in OECD countries.
VP2040 understood that there are likely to be many possible futures that achieve rapid decarbonisation, with different combinations of changes to technology and energy production, product and service design, methods of maximising assets utilisation and living patterns, including lower levels of consumption. The program aimed to define a set of plausible scenarios for city futures that can assist policy makers and the community generally to make choices about the future conditions that would lower CO2 emissions. These projected futures will be used to facilitate debates about what policies, innovations, investment and research should be pursued to chart pathways to low carbon and resilient urban futures.
VP2040 was not about predicting what will happen but rather creating visions of what could happen. For this reason it was a coordinated research and engagement project that aimed to co- create visions and scenarios with partners and the community. This transdisciplinary, solutions-oriented research aimed to widen interest in the social and technical innovations that could help realise those futures.
VP2040 aimed to use research, engagement and open collaboration to build plausible visions about what kinds of future cities we desire to inhabit.
This flagship project of the CRC LCL, with its focus on cities, bridges the three programs of the CRC - buildings, precincts and engaged communities.
PARTNERS:
Background: Cities and the challenges of a low-carbon future
We are more than halfway through the critical decade (Hughes and Steffen, 2013), the period in which our actions on climate change will determine whether we succeed globally to limit temperature rise to less than 2 degrees. It is increasingly recognised that one of the primary focuses of global action in this decade will be cities. Over the coming decades cities will be engaged in a significant and rapid process of transformation as they decarbonise their economies and adapt to climatic changes that are already becoming evident. This transformation will involve both existing urban infrastructure and established urban patterns of living. It is clear that this process of transformation will be challenging for Australian cities, particularly with a target for greenhouse gas reductions of 80% by 2040.
The VP2040 focus on cities addresses an area of policy development that has emerged as a critical domain for governments in most nations at city, . Since the commencement of the project late in 2013, the Australian government has formally recognised the important role of cities in shaping our future and appointed first a Minister for Cities and later an Assistant Minister to the Prime Minister for Cities and Digital Transformation. The City of Melbourne and the City of Sydney are partners in this program and have ambitious decarbonisation programs. Departments in the South Australian government have joined to ensure that Adelaide is also a focus for work. Several local governments in the Western Australian capital city of Perth are also partners.
As the South Australian Minister for Climate Change, the Hon Ian Hunter, made clear speaking at a VP2040 workshop in Adelaide, there is an emerging sense that the future economy of the Nation will depend on how rapidly and creatively we can develop policies that stimulate the development of low-carbon goods and services. However, Australia lags behind other countries when it comes to investing in institutions that bring together research, business and communities to generate innovation for the post-carbon economy.
Engaging with the complexity of cities to chart pathways for transformation
As cities grow, their infrastructure, physical form and cultural characteristics become intertwined. These tightly interlinked structures and processes support urban life, giving each city its particular cultural and economic identity (or in more current parlance, its liveability). The VP2040 scenarios are being developed recognising that the following characteristics of cities need to be considered:
Cities as a major source of emissions
More than half the world’s population now reside in cities and their contribution to global greenhouse gas production is estimated at between 53%-87%, in terms of CO2 emissions, depending on boundary assumptions and accounting methods (SETO 2014). The World Energy Outlook puts the figure at 71% (OECD/IEA 2008). This contribution is critical because cities occupy approximately just 2% of the global land area.
The decarbonisation of the city means freeing cities from fossil fuel energy dependencies by reducing total energy consumption and switching to renewable energy sources. That will impact on many physical elements of the city such as buildings and transport, as well as infrastructures including energy, water, food, information, goods, services and waste disposal.
Cities and climate vulnerabilities
The form and infrastructure systems of the city are also shaped by its historical climate conditions. Nearly half of the world’s cities are already experiencing the effects of a changing climate (UNEP 2011) as shifting climate patterns and extreme weather events threaten the resilience of those systems. Climate responses such as mitigation and adaptation have to be addressed coherently as processes of decarbonisation have to build resilience over time. Successful policies for decarbonising cities will address mitigation and adaptation together; the wrong pathway for either domain of action can exacerbate problems in achieving success in the other.
Cities, nature and ecosystems services
Current systems of provision for Australian cities reflect a history of development that increasingly separates consumption from production. Most of the resources on which city life depends are produced beyond the city boundaries which isolates them from the lived experience of urban citizens. Cities are sometimes regarded as a refuge from nature, obscuring their dependence on natural ecosystems and the social processes that turn those ecosystems into goods and services.
Cities as economic and political agents
In the last decades, cities have become a focus for action on climate change because of their apparent agency - the willingness of their city authorities, businesses and citizens to make change. Globally, cities – and networks of cities – are active in adopting greenhouse reduction targets and investing in programs to reach them.
Cities contribute significantly to national economies, both in Australia and in other countries. The same characteristics that have been shown to assist with generating innovation – supporting a culture of social connection, diversity and creativity – must be an essential feature of any city that successfully transitions to a low carbon future.